Caribbean National IQ re-estimates

[For more National IQ re-estimates refer to Cuba’s anomalously high National IQ and African National IQs, redux]

I’ve been playing around with a model of immigrant selection in which selection is a function of both the National IQs of the immigrants’ country of origin and the educational selectivity of emigrants relative to the various non-emigrating populations. The first part is based on the idea that emigrating is an IQ test with a selection ratio below 100%. That is, it is a test in which not all who desire to emigrate pass. If so, given national differences in true latent IQ, there should be “adverse impact” for emigrating, just as there is for tests when populations differ in IQ. That is, emigrating should be, on average, less problematic on the account of IQ alone for individuals from high IQ nations than low. This entails that more of the latter will be discriminated against and, as such, that those of the latter who do emigrate will be more selected, relative to the non-emigrating populations, than those of the former. If this is the case, then estimated selectivity will require good National IQ estimates. Of the National IQs provided by L & V and others, those from the Caribbean are of the worst quality (as indexed by L & V’s quality of data measure; refer to page 17 of L & V (2012) for a discussion of this measure).

A such, I tried to create better Caribbean estimates. Below, row A gives the country, B gives the final estimated IQ, C the quality of measures, D the point range for those countries which had multiple measures, E Lynn’s IQs, F Lynn’s IQ sample sizes, G the quality of the samples, H Lynn’s A(chievement)Qs, I the tests these were based on, J the quality of these samples, K my IQs, L the quality of these sample, M my AQs, N the tests these were based on, O the quality of these samples, P AQs based on CXC pass rates, Q the quality of these samples. Final IQ estimates were based on IQ and achievement estimated weighted for quality. For quality with respect to IQ I assigned 0 to samples if the total sample was below 100, 1 if the total sample ranged from 100-1000, 2 if the total ranged from 1000 to 2000 and so on. For quality with respect to AQs, I assigned 2 points to major international tests (e.g., PISA, PIRLS, SERCE) and 1 point to other tests.

As for the AQ scores I derived I used international standard deviations for PISA, PIRLS, SERCE, and LLECE and the national standard deviations for NAEP. I adjusted the NAEP scores down two points as, on IQ tests, the national US average is 2 points below the national UK average. The CXC scores were derived from math and reading pass rates based on the 2000 and 2001 CSEC, the Caribbean Secondary Education Certificate. These scores are probably not the best indexes of IQ but they are likely more reliable than Lynn’s connivance sample IQs. Following a modified version of L & V’s method, the relative difference between Caribbean nations on the CSEC was first calculated and then all scores were adjusted down by 19 IQ points. The 19 point adjustment was for the average underperformance of Belize, the Dominican Republic, and Trinidad and Tobaga on international tests relative to the UK AQ. My IQ estimate for the Bahamas was based on Johnson and Holmes (1987). An IQ of 103 was given for the 75th percentile of representative samples of secondary students in 1987 based on the Otis. This was adjusted 0.68 SD down, as the 75th percentile is that much above the mean, and 1.5 points were deducted for the Flynn effect, on the assumption that the 1982 Otis norms were used.

Many of these estimates are improbably low – for example, the Jamaican national IQ of 72.6. Until more reliable scores are found, the estimates presented should be taken as very rough approximations. Data is, in principle, available to make better estimates. For example, Jamaica has conducted a couple of nationally representative surveys in the last two decades which contain PPVT scores as an index of cognitive abilities. And the Netherlands-Antilles took part in the PISA 2009 survey. Finding published results though, with means and standard deviations, has been challenging. And publicly accessible data sets have not been released for these surveys. But such information, is probably floating around somewhere or could be made available on request.

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7 Responses to Caribbean National IQ re-estimates

  1. Anonymous654 says:

    Rank order of these results sounds plausible: you always hear nice things about #2 Barbados v. the other islands, and I believe I’ve heard good things about #1 Dominica as well.

    • Steve says:

      I believe Barbados is the only black country that is ranked ‘very high’ by human development index. The centre of Bridgetown, the capital, looks really nice.

  2. Steve says:

    This is the only IQ data I can find in the Carribean (its probably well known):

    “The present study investigates generational changes in mental test performance on the Caribbean island of Dominica. In a cross-sectional design, Raven’s Standard Progressive Matrices were administered to two age groups: young adults between the ages of 18 and 25 years, and older adults between the ages of 51 and 62 years. Raw scores were 23.3 ′ 11.4 points for the older generation and 36.1 ′ 10.9 points for the younger generation. Compared to the current British norms for their respective age groups, the average IQs of these two cohorts were estimated as 61 and 73, respectively.”

    (from 2005).

    Apart from that, just some fuss in the press about Trinidad and Tobago having the second highest IQ in the Carribean which I can’t substantiate:

    I looked at the paper that the data is claimed to be from and I couldn’t find it.

  3. Kiwiguy says:

    OT, I just picked up this new book from the local library ‘Race, Monogamy & Other Lies.” It has a blurb on the back from Jonathan Marks which indicates how one-sided it is going to be.

    • Chuck says:

      Agustín Fuentes is a dogmatic anti-racist. His position against race and race differences is logically unsound. Apparently, this bothers him not one bit because he feels that he is lying for the greater good. You can see my comments left on the linked post.

      • Kiwiguy says:

        There are a number of books that make similarly bogus arguments. I was enjoying Mathew Syed’s “Bounce” until the final chapter when he sets about attacking the idea that black athletes might have some natural advantage (and the corresponding idea that there may be mental differences).

        Rarely do MSM reviewers recognise the bogus arguments. So I find review them on Amazon when I have time. I just provided one on Fuentes book – nowhere near as technical or detailed as your comments on psych today. I take it he never got back to you?

  4. Pingback: IQ Estimates for Various Races | Robert Lindsay

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