Race gaps in Holland and the fading reality of race

Relatively large decreases in racial gaps over a decade don’t increase my confidence in a global genetic hypothesis. Below are the dutch CITO gaps (SDs = 10) as reported in Gijsberts, et al., 2012. The CITO is given by 85% of Dutch primary schools to age ~12 students; the sample sizes are large. Bartels et al. reports a 0.63 age 12 correlation between CITO and IQ and a narrow heritability of 0.60. Lynn (2006; 2008) considered the test to be a sufficiently good enough measure of g to include it in his discussions of race differences (see: Lynn, 2006; Lynn, 2008).

Ignore the White-Antillian gap. As Suzanne Model has shown in her exhaustive analysis of the performance of Black Caribbean emigrants to the US, UK, Canada, and the Netherlands, the parents of these kids are fairly selected. Black West Indian emigrants perform approximately the same in these diverse places, suggesting that they are equally selected. In the UK and the US, circa 2010, 2nd generation Black West Indian children/adolescents performed, on tests of mental ability, about a half of a standard deviation below 2nd and 3rd generation Whites. So we might not be surprised that, as of 2008, West Indian Blacks perform only 0.75 SD below Dutch Whites.

Focus instead on the Surinamese-Dutch gap. The gap from 1994 to 1997 is consistent with the 2nd generation IQ gap reported by te Nijenhuis et al. (2004), so this can be taken as a good estimate of the overall IQ gap. Over 2/5ths of Surinamese emigrated to the Netherlands. They can’t possibly be very selected. For reference, here are the rates of emigration by educational attainment as presented by Docquier and Marfouk (2005):

As can be seen by looking at Rate of Emigration by Education, approximately 41% of the emigrants were low skilled and 50% were high skilled. The difference amounts to approximately 0.25 SD deviations. If one compares the number of working age residents by education to working age emigrants to the OECD by education, assuming low, medium, and high skill represent -1 SD, +0 SD, and +1 SD standardized deviations, respectively, above the mean, one arrives at a similar standardized educational difference. Assuming that the correlation between education and general intelligence is the same in Suriname as it is in the West, approximately 0.6, the selection for general intelligence on the account of education could only be 0.15 SD (0.25 X 0.6). Since there would be regression to the mean, the second generation could only be selected approximately 0.1 SD on the account of their parents’ educational selectivity (0.15 x 0.6). Similar analyses can be done to show that on other accounts, Surinamese emigrants to the Netherlands are not particularly selected for g.

To the extent that a hereditarian hypothesis can be reconciled with the small and continually narrowing gap, it must in terms of population composition. According to the CIA World Fact Book, Surinamese are 37% Indian, 31% Creole (mixed white and black), 15% Javanese, 10% African, and 8% other. According to Lynn (2008 p. 205), this population should have a phenotypic IQ of 85; assuming that the narrow heritability of the various global IQ differences is 50%, as argued by Lynn (2006), the IQ gap should be, at minimal 0.5 SD. The 2008 gap, then, is at the minimal level consistent with Lynn’s genetic hypothesis.

Gijsberts, et al., 2012. Bijlagen Jaarrapport integratie 2011

Lynn, 2006. Differences in Intelligence An Evolutionary Analysis

Lynn, 2008. The Global Bell Curve: Race, IQ, and Inequality Worldwide

te Nijenhuis et al., 2004. Are Cognitive Differences Between Immigrant and Majority Groups Diminishing?

Bartels, et al., 2002. Heritability of Educational Achievement in 12-year-olds and the Overlap with Cognitive Ability

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6 Responses to Race gaps in Holland and the fading reality of race

  1. soren says:

    “Focus instead on the Surinamese-Dutch gap. Over 2/5ths of Surinamese emigrated to the Netherlands. They can’t possibly be very selected.”

    What? I don’t think so…

    “Unlike migrants from Turkey or the Middle East, Surinamese migrants spoke Dutch and were at least marginally familiar with Dutch culture. Additionally, the migrants who came from Suriname were generally far more educated than those who stayed behind, a fact which helped them find jobs and independence.”

    http://dutch.berkeley.edu/mcnl/history/immigration/colonial/the-surinamese/

  2. soren says:

    Why does the magnitude of the immigration matter at all? There is a no doubt there was some selection for “g”.

    • Chuck says:

      First, I checked the educational selectivity of Surinamese emigrants as reported in Docquier and Marfouk (2005). Emigrants were not “far more educated than those who stayed behind.” See my expanded discussion above.

      As for your question, imagine two scenarios. In both, Surinamese emigrants are “far more educated than those who stayed behind.” Let’s quantify this as being 1 SD more selected. Imagine that in the first and second scenario, 5% and 95% of the population, respectively, emigrated. Does the % of total emigrants have an impact on selectivity? Of course. Because selectivity refers to the difference between the emigrant population and the total (emigrant + non-emigrant) population. In the second scenario, while there would still be a 1 SD difference between emigrants and non-emigrants (movers and stayers), the emigrant population could not very selected as compared to the total population, as 95% of the total population emigrated.

  3. Steve Sailer says:

    I don’t know about Surinamese in Holland, but here’s what Wikipedia says for the demographics of the people currently in Suriname:

    According to the 2004 census, Suriname has a population of 492,829 inhabitants.[2] It is made up of several distinct ethnic groups.
    Amerindians, the original inhabitants of Suriname, form 3.7% of the population. The main groups being the Akuriyo, Arawak, Carib/Kaliña, Trío (Tiriyó), and Wayana. They live mainly in the districts of Paramaribo, Wanica, Maroni and Sipaliwini.[15]
    Hindoestanen form the largest major group at 37% of the population. They are descendants of 19th-century contract workers from India. They are from the Indian states of Bihar and Eastern Uttar Pradesh, in Northern India, along the Nepali border.
    The Surinamese Creoles form the middle group 31% of the population. They are the mixed descendants of West African slaves and Europeans (mostly Dutch).
    The Javanese (descendants of contract workers from the former Dutch East Indies on the island of Java, Indonesia),[16] form 15% of the population. mainly in Nickerie, Saramacca, Wanica, Paramaribo and Commewijne
    Surinamese Maroons (descendants of escaped West African slaves) make up 10% and are divided into five main groups: Ndyuka (Aucans), Kwinti, Matawai, Saramaccans and Paramaccans.
    Chinese, about 14,000 are descendants of the earliest 19th-century contract workers. The 1990s and early 21st century saw renewed immigration on a large scale. In the year 2011 there were over 40,000 Chinese in Suriname, including legal and illegal migrants.[17]
    Boeroes (derived from boer, the Dutch word for “farmer”) are descendants of Dutch 19th-century immigrant farmers. Most Boeroes left after independence in 1975.
    Jews, mainly descendants of Sephardic Jews and Ashkenazi Jews. In their history, Jodensavanne plays a major role. Many Jews are mixed with other populations.
    Lebanese, primarily Maronites, many from the town of Bcharre, Lebanon.
    Brazilians, many of them gold miners.[18] Most of the nearly 40,000 Brazilians living in Suriname arrived during the past several years.[19]

    • Chuck says:

      That’s pretty close to what I said: “Surinamese are 37% Indian, 31% Creole (mixed white and black), 15% Javanese, 10% African, and 8% other.” The average phenotypic IQ, based on Lynn’s national IQs should be 85, as Lynn (2008 p. 204-205) himself has stated. So the 2007/2008 scores are barely consistent with his predictions. And the narrowing does not seem to be slowing.

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