Partially falsified

[Update: Kiwiguy dug up 2006-2010 UKCAT annual report scores. I added them to the discussion below. I also added 2008-2009 UK laws school test (LNAT) results]

As usual, JL managed to unearth some obscure document as counter-weight to my otherwise solid case against “race realism.” Below, I summarized the data. Pertinent are the last couple of rows, where White, Mixed, and Black IQs are presented, normed on a White mean of 100 with Standard deviations of 15. You will notice there that the UK Black-White gap is only about 0.5 SD. (Using the first regression formula presented in Wright and Strand (2005) –(.66V + .21Q + .18NV) — table 4, the FSIQ gap is 8.2 points.) And the UK Mixed-White FSIQ Gap is only 30% of that.

Source: GL assessment (2010). Cognitive Abilities Test (CAT) and GCSE grades: 2009/10. Table 4.

Wright and Strand (2005) give some background on CAT3.

The CAT-3 is now the most widely used test of reasoning abilities in the UK, used routinely in educational settings, contributing to over 850,000 pupil assessments in 2002/2003. The test battery comprises 3 scales measuring Verbal Reasoning (VR), Non Verbal Reasoning (NVR), and Quantitative Reasoning (QR) and is traditionally administered in a group classroom setting. Children are provided with answer booklets and are given extensive introductory instructions and practice examples as to how to approach each subtest in the battery. A large scale study carried out by Strand (in press) using CAT-2 (a precursor to the CAT-3), reported very high test-retest correlations over a three-year interval in children aged 10 to 13 years. Correlations ranged from 0.76 for NVR, 0.79 for QR, 0.87 for VR, and 0.86 for mean CAT-2 score. CAT scores are strongly correlated with pupils’ subsequent attainment in national tests at age 11 and 14 and public examinations at age 16-18 (Smith, Fernandes, & Strand, 2001). According to data provided by nferNelson, most children sit the CAT-3 test in year 7 (age 11-12 years) and around 20% of all children will have CAT-3 tests in both year 7, and year 9 (age 13-14 years) (S. Strand, personal communication, September 2004). Many children in primary schools will take elements from CAT-3 rather than the full battery. The widespread use of the CAT-3 as a formal test of children’s intellectual abilities therefore provides a potential method of estimating children’s premorbid IQ. (Estimation of Premorbid Intellectual Abilities in Children)

I find the data ambiguous. The kids are only ages 11-12 here. As made clear in a figure which I pointed to previously, the White-Black African GCSE point gap decreases with age, from which we might infer that the IQ gap decreases with age.

I was also able to find a tiny sample (n=11) coming from a longitudinal study conducted in 2000. Age 11 verbal reasoning test scores were reported. These kids would have been born around 1983. As can be seen, the difference is .78 SD.

Frederickson and Petrides, 2005. Ethnic, gender, and socio-economic group differences in academic performance and secondary school selection: A longitudinal analysis

More data comes from wave 4 of the the nationally representative Millennium Cohort Study. The kids were tested in 2008 with the British Ability Scale. The children in this wave of the study are 7. The first column shows the gQ score, the second column shows the standard error, and the last shows the sample sizes. The Black-White difference, here, is a mere .33 SD. For comparison, Flynn and Dickens (2005) give an age 7 US difference of .5 SD.


I was able to find some UK SAT data based on year 13 (age 17) students. The kids took the tests in 2006:

Source: Kirkup, et al. (2007). Use of an Aptitude Test in University Entrance – A Validity Study Relationships between SAT® scores, attainment measures and background variables

What’s noticeable (Table 5.5 page 30) is that the SAT and GSCE score gaps match; we might infer then that since as of 2010 there is little GSCE gap, there would be little SAT gap. But the sample sizes are small here and probably unrepresentative, so it’s difficult to make much of this.

What’s needed then are CAT scores for adults. The only ones which I found, dating from 2000, show such outlandishly high gaps, that they are hardly credible indexes of 2nd generation adult Black performance. My interpretation would be that these represent the scores of mostly first generation immigrant Blacks.


Source: Evers, te Nijenhuis, van der Flier (2005). Ethnic Bias and Fairness in Personal Selection: Evidence and Consequences pg. 309.)

The magnitude of these gaps do more or less match with those found based on Situational Judgment tests (STTs). With SJTs, test-takers are presented with realistic scenarios and asked to identify the appropriate response. These tests are found to show less mean ethnic/racial differences than traditional cognitive ability tests. (See: Whetzel, et al., 2008. Differences in Situational Judgment Test Performance: A Meta-Analysis.)

Source: Dewburry et al. Situational judgment tests and adverse impact in the UK: A large sample study

Other data comes from the 2012 Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies survey in which the Literacy and Numeracy of age 16 to 65 adults was measured. On page 90 of tthe report for England, The international survey of adult skills 2012: adult literacy, numeracy and problem solving skills in England, the following Black/White score differences were provided:

Literacy 34
Numeracy 43

On page 15 of the same paper, the following sample sizes are reported:

White 4463
Black 174

On pages 259 thru 266 of the OECD Skills Outlook 2013 report, the following unadjusted English SDs are reported:

Literacy 49.1 (pg 261)
Numeracy 55.0 (pg 266)

The correlation between Literacy and Numeracy in England was given on page 266:
r (L x N) = .87

Based on the above, the composite score would be:

0.737 / ((SQRT (2+2*0.87))/2) = 0.76.

Similar results were found based on the reported 2003 and 2011 English Skills for Life surveys when restricting consideration to UK Whites and UK Caribbean Blacks.

Some other data comes from a decade ago:

Source: Baron et al. (2005). Chapter 6: Ethnic group differences and measuring cognitive ability. International Review of Industrial and Organizational Psychology.

You will notice here that the gaps are only 0.5 SD; see also table 6.2. These samples are likely unreliable as the sizes are so minute.

A commenter pointed me to UKCAT annual report scores; the UKCAT is a dental and medical school entrance exam. The test is said to be a measure of aptitude and not knowledge (UKCAT Annual Report, 2007. pg. 2). It measures Verbal Reasoning (VR), Quantitative Reasoning (QR), Abstract Reasoning (AR), and Decision Analysis (DA). I transformed the total scores into UKCATIQ scores, normed on a White mean of 100 with standard deviations of 15. The year, sample size, and scores are listed:

Source: UKCAT Annual Report 2006; UKCAT Annual Report 2007; UKCAT Annual Report 2008; UKCAT Annual Report 2009/2010

The results from the most recent report — the 2010 to 2011 annual report — can be seen below. Based on the information presented in the annual reports the average age of the test takers was 21. So these individuals would have been born in 1990.

UKCAT 2011
Ethnicity………….N…….% of test takers……..CATIQ
White British……..10630…..51%…………………100
White Other………..1265…..6%…………………..94
Asian……………..5393…..26%………………….91
Black……………..1247……6%………………….83
Mixed race………….759……4%………………….95
Chinese…………….423……2%………………….101

It can be seen that there are consistent score differences. On these exams, Blacks score approximately 1 SD below Whites. Medical school applicants are not representative of the population at large, though, so it’s not clear how much analytic leverage this data gives us.

Other medical tests, though, do show similar differences. Here are the results from a recent pilot study of the Clinical Problem Solving Test — with higher rank scores representing worse results:

Dacre, et al., 2008. Clinical Problem Solving Test Pilot Project Report.

I was able to find LNAT test results from 2005 to 2009. The LNAT is the UK law school test. I transformed the total scores into LNATIQ scores, normed on a White mean of 100 with standard deviations of 15. Standard deviations were not provided, but the data allowed for their calculation. I calculated them for the total sample. The White SDs are lower, so the actual standardized difference between Blacks and Whites, based on the pooled White-Black SD, is higher than shown below. The first table below lists the results in detail for the 2008-2009 cycle; the second summarizes the results from 2005-2009.

LNAT: National Admissions test for Law. 2010. Analysis of LNAT results 2008-9 by gender, ethnicity, school and parental occupation. Accessed February 2012.

This data agrees with the Bar rankings. The qualification rank differences comes out to between 0.5 and 1 SD.

Sauboorah, 2011. An analysis of full-time students enrolled on the 2009/10 BVC See also: Dewberry, 2001. Performance disparities between whites and ethnic minorities: Real diVerences or assessment bias?

Also, adverse impact scores were provided for the UK Fire Fighter tests, the NFA. For the subsections of this test that were cognitively loaded the White-non-White gap was 0.9 SD. The sample sizes were small and the “non-White” category was not broken down by ethnicity. But we can reasonably conclude that the scores of Black and South Asian test takers were well below those of the White ones, given the composition of the UK non-White population at large. This study was conducted in 2009 and the median age of the participants, deduced from the second source cited, was about 25. So these individuals would have been born in 1985.

I did find some data on university attainment. Averaging across degree classes, Whites obtain approximately 0.5 standard deviations higher degree classes than Blacks. But it will be noticed, based on the Chinese sample, that there doesn’t seem to be a horribly good association between IQ differences and attainment differences:

Source: Richardson (2008). The attainment of ethnic minority students in UK higher education. See also: Richardson, 2010. Widening participation without widening attainment: The case of ethnic minority students

Overal, to my mind, the data is ambiguous. What is noticeable is that to the extent the CAT data captures the UK Black-White difference, the gap has greatly narrowing in the last couple of decades. Compare here. Based on the data Lynn provided I calculated a 0.9 SD difference. So the gap possibly narrowed 0.4 SD. This is rather amazing since, undoubtably Black immigrants to the UK have become much less selected, as the government now virtually sweeps African Blacks out of refugee camps into the UK.

When I get a chance, I will look into UK immigrant selection.

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50 Responses to Partially falsified

  1. Gilbert Pinfold says:

    My takeaway is that if Blacks must live in Western nations (and specifically declining civilisations such as the US and UK), then they will do relatively better where they are a smaller minority.

  2. Kiwiguy says:

    fyi – another study in terms of the upper end of applicants.

    “The United Kingdom Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT) is an entrance test for applicants to medical and dental schools, derived from existing selection tests that are already used in job applications and other arenas. The test is an appraisal of aptitude and not knowledge. .. The test was first delivered in 2006 (and used in admissions cycles for entry in 2007 to medical and dental schools).”

    Mean scores 2008:

    Ethnic Group Number of Candidates % Mean Total Score SD
    White 11678 56.9 2483 251
    Asian 4788 23.3 2360 269
    Black 1040 5.1 2213 298
    Chinese 883 4.3 2530 239
    Mixed race 769 3.4 2425 295
    Other 976 4.8 2293 287
    Not declared 378 1.8 2367 336

    Links to the 2006 – 2008 results in the references 59-60.

    http://www.bmj.com/content/342/bmj.d901#ref-55

    • Chuck says:

      Thanks. I added your find to the discussion. I wonder if there’s an other CAT data floated around out there.

    • Chuck says:

      So I was able to find LNAT (UK law school) results:
      http://www.lnat.ac.uk/analysis-of-lnat-results-n10142-s11.aspx
      From them I was able to create an LNATIQ, added above

      If you could find more info like that it would be great.

      • Steve Sailer says:

        What is law school in England? Is it for grads or undergrads? The numbers look small compared to the huge number in the U.S. who take the LSAT. I thought they had an apprenticeship system at the Inns of Court, or something like that … I don’t recall

        Anyway, I brought these dopey questions up more to point out that it can be complicated to understand what’s really going on with tests in another country, even one that speaks English. For example, a few years ago, Kanazawa of the LSE published some study making some point about differences in college admissions test scores among American states, but it wasn’t useful because (as far as I can recall) he didn’t understand that in some U.S. states, the ACT is the norm and the SAT is mostly taken by the most ambitious and in other states it’s the other way around. (If you just look at average SAT scores, then Iowa looks much smarter than Massachusetts.) He meant well, but that’s just the kind of idiosyncratic fact that you need to know to interpret American test scores properly, but there’s no reason for a Brit to know it.

        Similarly, I find reading about British tests to be as eye-glazing as reading about cricket with its silly mid offs.

    • Steve Sailer says:

      So, there is about a one standard deviation difference between white and black med school applicants in the UK, although I can’t tell whether the percent of blacks applying is relatively high or low just by looking at the number. Are they skimming the cream or scraping the bottom of the barrel. I know that in the U.S., not that many blacks apply to med school but a lot more apply to law school, making the white-black gap on the LSAT bigger than on the MCAT.

      What percentage of black immigrants to the UK came as doctors or nurses to work for National Health? I recall a black African doctor treating Basil Fawlty in 1975, so I suspect the number is higher than one might think.

      • Steve Sailer says:

        Actually, I was wrong about the LSAT gap being bigger than the MCAT gap: they are about the same. The MCAT is hard. Not that many blacks apply to dental school, and they do a little better on the DAT relative to whites. I crunched the numbers here:

        http://www.vdare.com/articles/graduate-school-admissions-race-and-the-white-status-game

      • Chuck says:

        Blacks made up about ~5% of the total applicant pool in 2009/2010 for the UKCAT. What percent of the age 20-30 UK population are they? In the LNAT (UK’s LSAT) data I found, the the n’s were so small as to make the comparison virtually worthless. The interesting thing about the UKCAT is that it’s basically an IQ test. There’s a separate knowledge based test called the BMAT.

      • Steve Sailer says:

        I wonder what percentage of black African med school applicants in England are graduates of African universities? Over the years, I’ve read several times about the brain drain of smart people from poor Anglophone ex-colonies to the National Health service in Britain, but I wouldn’t know whether these stats include them or not.

        Interpreting test scores is hard and interpreting test scores from another country is harder.

      • Chuck says:

        re :What is law school in England? Is it for grads or undergrads?”

        Here’s a description of the test: “LNAT was developed by a consortium of UK universities as a fair way to assess a candidate’s potential to study law at undergraduate level, regardless of their education or personal background….The LNAT is designed to be a test of aptitude rather than educational achievement. The skills that candidates need to do well in the LNAT are also the skills that they need to do well in legal education…. It is used alongside standard methods of selection such as A Level (or their global equivalent) results, university applications, and admissions interviews, to give a more accurate and rounded impression of the student’s abilities.”

        I added two more test cycles and found the same results — Blacks score about 0.66 SD below Whites and Black/Whites score about 0.1 SD below Whites. Is there assortative interracial mating in the UK?

        re: “Anyway, I brought these dopey questions up more to point out that it can be complicated to understand what’s really going on with tests in another country, even one that speaks English.”

        And yet, HBD is largely based on literalist interpretations of international test differences. It’s interesting — to me — that when I find and point to some apparent counter evidence, everyone becomes an environmentalist (e.g., racial bias against whites; a class caste theory; motivational differences; test bias; Chav “stereotype threat,” etc.) Complicated, indeed.

        ……………………

        I think my inference is corrected when it comes to the immigration data. We can’t test a hereditarian hypothesis directly, but we can test it indirectly by looking at migrant scores, adjusting for selection. And immigrants aren’t going to be super-duper selected as some contend. So it would be worthwhile for everyone to look more into migrant data. Lynn (2008) does this, or course, but many of his references are dated.

        One problem of course is that for some countries it’s rather difficult to find info. For example, I just finished a number of data base searches for articles on race differences in the UK. I replicated Woods et al’s search —

        “Studies were identified using several literature search strategies. A bibliographic search of electronic databases including PsycINFO, Sciencedirect, SwetsWise, Business Source Premier (EBSCO), SocIndex with Full Text (EBSCO), and Ingentaconnect using Boolean searches of keywords including cognitive ability, intelligence, ethnicity, race and adverse impact. A manual search for relevant papers was also conducted in the following journals: Personnel Psychology, Journal of Applied Psychology, Journal of Occupational and Organisational Psychology, and International Journal of Selection and Assessment.”

        I found almost nothing! An IQ blackout. That would, of course, explain why Woods et al — UK based researchers — investigated the US, not UK gap. Now, to put this into perspective, here’s a discussion about ability tests in the UK:

        “Two thirds of all secondary schoolchildren in the UK take CAT every year, not least because its results are used to build understanding of individual potential and learning styles, and to assess the most effective teaching methods for individual children.

        CAT Digital is the digital version of the test, available via the Testwise portal, that gives you and your pupils faster results, a more motivating test experience and greater flexibility in administering the tests.”

      • Steve Sailer says:

        “And immigrants aren’t going to be super-duper selected as some contend.”

        Indian immigrants in the U.S. are indeed super-duper selected compared to the Indian masses back home. Mexican immigrants are not. West Indian and African immigrants to the U.S. probably fall in between, perhaps more toward the Indian than Mexican levels of selection.

        I’d like to know more about African and West Indian immigrants to Britain.

  3. Kiwiguy says:

    Cheers, I can’t find much else at the moment. Just looking at second generation immigrants, I found this study which looked at the British Cohort Study (1970). The results at the end show the South East Asian students making up considerable ground between age 5 and 10, while the carribean students have relatively stable results.

    “A longitudinal analysis of UK second-generation disadvantaged immigrants”

    “In this study, we use data on individuals born in 1970, comparing the cognitive skills of children born to immigrants as compared to non immigrant children. We are able to consider the cognitive skill development of four ethnic groups: children with both parents born in a) UK or Europe; b) South Asia; c) Caribbean and d) other countries and mixed combinations.”

    http://doc.rero.ch/lm.php?url=1000,44,9,20100415100011-SL/CR_2_10_Meunier.pdf

    In terms of skill selection this paper looks at years of education and skill level for different groups. “Ethnic minority immigrants and their children in Britain”.

    http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/14293/1/14293.pdf

    I’ll have another look for more CAT type results later.

  4. Steve Sailer says:

    The big thing to look into is the emergence of a gender gap over the last generation in Britain favoring teen girls in run-of-the-mill tests like the GSCE. It’s significantly bigger than in the U.S., and seems to hold across most ethnicities. It’s a smoking gun that something is going wrong with white British culture. In contrast, in the U.S., female-favoring gender gaps are much worse among blacks and Hispanics than among whites and Asians.

  5. Gilbert Pinfold says:

    Whites do still exist, then?

  6. Steve Sailer says:

    Another thing to keep in mind is that while I don’t know about the UK, I know that in the U.S., a lot of West Indians are from the mulatto elite: Attorney General Eric Holder, General Colin Powell, singer Rhianna, journalist Malcolm Gladwell, etc. The last chapter in Gladwell’s book Outliers describes all the pains his mother’s middle class family in Jamaica took to stay Light and Bright. Were mulattos more likely to emigrate to the UK or US than blacker West Indians? Probably.

    Similarly, we know that the Haitian diaspora is more mulatto than the Haitian masses back on the island.

    • Chuck says:

      “West Indian and African immigrants to the U.S. probably fall in between, perhaps more toward the Indian than Mexican levels of selection. I’d like to know more about African and West Indian immigrants to Britain.”

      Steve,

      Could you give me the cognitive percentile you have in mind when it comes to West Indian migrants? I say that the 86th percentile is about as selective as you get (i.e., 1.1 SD.) And it’s probably much less. As for data on West Indian migrants, refer yourself to the work of Suzzane Model. Here’s the amazon blurb about her book, “West Indian Immigrants: A Black Success Story?:

      “West Indian Immigrants draws on four decades of national census data, surveys of Caribbean emigrants around the world, and historical records dating back to the emergence of the slave trade. Model debunks the notion that growing up in an all-black society is an advantage by showing that immigrants from racially homogeneous and racially heterogeneous areas have identical economic outcomes. Weighing the evidence for white American favoritism, Model compares West Indian immigrants in New York, Toronto, London, and Amsterdam, and finds that, despite variation in the labor markets and ethnic composition of these cities, Caribbean immigrants in these four cities attain similar levels of economic success. Model also looks at “movers” and “stayers” from Barbados, Jamaica, Trinidad, and Guyana, and finds that emigrants leaving all four countries have more education and hold higher status jobs than those who remain. In this sense, West Indians immigrants are not so different from successful native-born African Americans who have moved within the U.S. to further their careers. Both West Indian immigrants and native-born African-American movers are the “best and the brightest”–they are more literate and hold better jobs than those who stay put. While political debates about the nature of black disadvantage in America have long fixated on West Indians’ relatively favorable economic position, this crucial finding reveals a fundamental flaw in the argument that West Indian success is proof of native-born blacks’ behavioral shortcomings. Proponents of this viewpoint have overlooked the critical role of immigrant self-selection.”

      I read some of her book a while back, but never got too far. Here’s an abridged version: http://people.umass.edu/smodel/Society_45.pdf

      Again I don’t see the super duper selection (i.e., above the 86th percentile.)

      • Steve Sailer says:

        What’s your estimate for Indian immigrants in the U.S.?

      • Chuck says:

        “What’s your estimate for Indian immigrants in the U.S.?”

        So, some argue that migration requires a minimal threshold of intelligence or that low IQ imposes extra difficulties for would be migrants, all else being equal. If this is the case, our estimate of immigrant selectivity is contingent on our estimate of the ‘true’ phenotypic IQ of the nation from which the immigrant hails and on some estimate of selection imposed by the very act of immigration. By ‘true’ I am referring to a hypothetical national IQ for which measurement invariance is found to hold and for which there is found to be a g difference– as opposed to just scores differences which may or may not mean anything.

        For example, let’s imagine that the ‘true’ phenotypic IQ of India and China are, respectively, 85 and 100 and that the difference is due entirely to biologically influencing environmental factors. So, on average, Chinese behave like White Americans with IQs of 100 and Indians behave like White Americans with IQs of 85. When it comes to immigration to the USA, in both cases there is a high degree of educational and occupational selectivity (refer to table 3, here: Docquier, F., & Marfouk, A. (2005). International Migration by Educational Attainment (1990- 2000). In both cases, immigrants are more selected for occupation and education — and so we can infer IQ, to some extent, as IQ tends to correlate with occupation and education at around 0.5. But those factors apart, we might expect Indians to be more selected, by virtue of coming from a country with a lower national IQ, at least if we though that the act of immigration itself is a form of selection.

        But how much more? That depends on how much IQ imposes a limit on immigration. Imagine that Robert Gordon is right, and that “Everyday Life as an Intelligence Test” — in which case I’m flunking bad. If so, we can treat immigration as a selection test, a sort of everyday life CAT. And we can look at the “disparate impact” of this test, assuming different proposed thresholds. See here:

        The standardized group difference on the left can represent our ‘true’ National IQ difference. The selection ratio across the top can represent our proposed selectivity for the act of immigration. I would say a plausible selection ratio for immigration is 90%, that is, of 100% of would be immigrants anywhere, 10% don’t make it on the account of IQ constraints alone.

        So for China, on the account of IQ alone, 90% of people would make it. And the effect size would be ~.1 For India, only 61% of the people would make it, and the effect size would be ~.5 That is to say, all else being equal, Indian immigrants would be more selected for by .4 SD. After that we would factor in differences in educational and occupational selection.

        I don’t know, does my thinking on this make sense? I didn’t really answer your question, because I want to wait to see if we agree with the basic logic.

      • Steve Sailer says:

        But I think it’s also quite likely that African-American achievement suffers from an “oppositional” culture that encourages knuckleheadedness. For example, according to Henry Louis Gates and Lani Guinier, a huge fraction of “black” people who get into Harvard on quotas are like Barack Obama rather than like Michelle Obama: they tend to be descended from foreign elites or from whites or, like Barack, both, and often have no relatives who were slaves in America. Now, some of this is no doubt genetic, but it’s hardly implausible that, say, Barbados is a likelier place for a middle-class mulatto to get an achievement-oriented upbringing than the U.S. Eric Holder, for example, was raised in the U.S., but within a Barbadian bubble — His Bajan parents didn’t want him associating with African-Americans.

        The growth of the gender gap across all races in Britain suggests a similar process

      • Chuck says:

        “I don’t know, does my thinking on this make sense? I didn’t really answer your question, because I want to wait to see if we agree with the basic logic.”

        I guess I don’t think that the act of immigration, per se, discriminates for ‘g’ that well. And I don’t think that ‘national IQ’ differences wholly represent ‘g’ differences. That said, given the analysis above, were immigration a better test of g (say, that 25% of those who wanted to immigrant couldn’t because of g-limitations), and were National IQ differences really g differences, then a case for super-duper selection might possibly be more plausible than I suggested elsewhere.
        Unfortunately, I don’t think that we will find any sources that report a correlation between IQ and migration status (coding migration as a bivariate variable, migrant/non-migrant), so I suspect we will never be able to determine how well the act of immigration, per se, discriminates for ‘g.’

    • Chuck says:

      “Another thing to keep in mind is that while I don’t know about the UK, I know that in the U.S., a lot of West Indians are from the mulatto elite….The last chapter in Gladwell’s book Outliers describes all the pains his mother’s middle class family in Jamaica took to stay Light and Bright.”

      So I was telling JL, previously, that I finally came up with a fair estimate of the IQ-ancestry correlation for “multigenerational” African Americans. (By “multigenerational,” I mean Blacks who’s admixture occurred 4 to 20 generations ago.) I estimated it to be around 0.14, based on standard deviations of admixture of 15% and assuming an adult geneotypic IQ gap of 0.75 SD. The upshot of this low estimate is that the ancestral genetic correlation between color and IQ must be rather low — around 0.05, since the correlation between color and ancestry in this population is itself low (.44 or so). So other factors must be involved (e.g., cross assortative mating for color and IQ, etc.) Now, in the West Indian Black population, the ancestral genetic correlation should be even lower, since in that population color and ancestry correlate at about .37 and since the standard deviations of admixture are probably somewhat lower. Based on the advice of Everett Dempster, I believe, Jensen derived a similar estimate — Jensen’s estimate was actually somewhat lower, but he didn’t have estimates of admixture standard deviations.

      Now, given the low correlations, were West Indian Blacks selected, say, for 1 SD of IQ, they would only be selected 0.14 SD of White ancestry and for 0.14 x .37 SD of color — and the latter is, essentially, noise level. So you would see some association were there ancestral based genetic differences, but it would be rather small. Looking at it from the other side, I’m not sure that a large association between color and migration tells you much. If, as you say, West Indians immigrants to the US are significantly lighter than non-immigrants, then some other factors must be involved, so it’s plausible that these factors account for all, instead of just most, of the association.

  7. Steve Sailer says:

    My rule of thumb model, going back to the 1990s has been a fifty-fifty divide between nature and nurture.

    So, if you read Malcolm Gladwell’s account of his Jamaican family’s efforts to stay Light and Bright (Gladwell, of course, will give you only the wooziest explanation, but it’s easy to read between the lines), you can watch a lot of interaction between middle class values and attracting a lighter skinned mate. One can trade off for the other to some extent. You can see what it took, over the generations, to put his middle class Jamaican mulatto mother in position to marry a white English professor of mathematics and settle in Canada and have a famous New Yorker writer for a son.

    My point is that people like Eric Holder and Colin Powell and other prominent mulatto West Indian immigrants aren’t just benefitting from white genes, they benefit from more middle class mores, from smarter blacks who found a way to get into the mulatto middle class, and so forth. And they benefit from a lack of oppositionalism in their culture: you social climb in the Barbadian mulatto middle class by acting English, not thuggish.

    • Greying Wanderer says:

      “aren’t just benefitting from white genes, they benefit from more middle class mores”

      It’s not just IQ – it’s violence, impulsivity, relative monogamy etc. Those who managed to extract themselves have to guard against all the ways of going back down the food chain.

  8. Greying Wanderer says:

    “What is noticeable is that to the extent the CAT data captures the UK Black-White difference, the gap has greatly narrowing in the last couple of decades.”

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1336410/OECD-condemns-British-education-inferior-Estonias.html

    “the UK slipped from eighth to 28th in maths, from seventh to 25th in reading and from fourth to 16th in science over the same period”

    “Even more disturbingly, the study found that a fifth of 15-year-old Britons are ‘functionally illiterate’”

    If you dumb down education enough then the gap disappears. That’s all it is.

    In the US there have been various schemes over the years that purportedly closed the gap but were found later to be fake. They only ever effected particular school districts because the US system is decentralized. In the UK state education is much more centralized so it’s been possible to destroy the entire education system in an attempt to hide the gap.

    • bbobb says:

      are you really claiming elimination of the racial achievement gap is the primary force in british educational policy?

      you are insane!

      • Greying Wanderer says:

        i’m claiming the elimination of all achievement gaps that contravene PC beliefs has been the primary force in British educational policy since the mid 80s whether it be class, race or gender – all must have prizes.

        achievement gaps that don’t contravene PC beliefs, like girls doing better than boys, are fine.

        however it doesn’t matter what the reason for the dumbing down is. the main point is that the British education system has been dumbed down to the point where GCSEs can’t be used as a proxy for IQ.

  9. Steve says:

    On the table at the top,

    White British: 101.1, 100.2, 101.3

    white/African mixed: 100.8, 99.6, 100.6

    African: 92, 94.1, 94.1

    If the gap is genetic, the mixed group should score in the middle but the mixed group scores almost the same as the white group, despite presumably a significant amount of African genes. This looks to me like strong evidence for your case. Combine it with the closing achievement gap that you pointed out and the IQ gap probably closes anyway.

    The only criticism I can think of is that the blacks that mated with whites were further selected.

    Chuck, may I ask you, what would you like to be true about this? Would you like race/IQ realism to be disproved?

    • Chuck says:

      [Some mistakes. Apologies. In a rush. Corrections made.]

      “The only criticism I can think of is that the blacks that mated with whites were further selected”

      That would be the most plausible one. Also sampling error. Could you calculate the confidence intervals? Alternatively, it could be that at younger ages environmental factors have a larger effect and that this effect is overshadowing that of the genetic ones. I found that, in the US, as biracial Black-Whites get older the scores become more intermediate to those of their parental populations.
      https://occidentalascent.wordpress.com/2012/05/18/biracialism/ Another alternative is that Black Africans in the UK do have the same genetic potential as whites — and that they have this because they are so immigrant selected. Yet another possible explanation is that the differences are not due to additive genetic effects. If differences were due to dominance and genes of large effects you might get non additive results — I’ll have to think about that, though.
      https://lesacreduprintemps19.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/racial-differences-and-the-probability.pdf

      “Chuck, may I ask you, what would you like to be true about this? Would you like race/IQ realism to be disproved?”

      Mixed feelings.

  10. Steve says:

    “As made clear in a figure which I pointed to previously, the White-Black African GCSE point gap decreases with age”

    Pedantic correction: the key stage 1,2,3 exams are not GCSEs. GCSEs are only taken by 14-16 year olds, mostly 15/16 year olds at the end of year 11. They were school leaving exams taken at the end of compulsory education until very recently when I believe compulsory education was extended to 18.

    GCSEs took over from O-levels. In the very old system (pre-1988), it was O-level (ordinary level) and A-level (advanced level), the latter taken after two years of non-compulsory ‘further education’ from 16-18. Now it is GCSE and A-level. A-levels are the main qualifications used for entry to university, or ‘higher education’.

    .

  11. Steve says:

    Do you have data for A level results by race? If the same percentage of whites and blacks are taking A levels and the A level gap is consistent with the employment test gaps, then I think its very likely that non-g factors are closing the gap at GCSE.. GCSEs are quite easy and overall pass rates were increasing (which could well mean standards were dropping) each year from 2007 to 2011 as the black-white gap closed. A levels are quite a bit more intellectually demanding, so the importance of g to success becomes greater…g differences are more likely to show up. Plus, if all the tests say there is an IQ gap, but one test says there isn’t, its just most likely that the one test is wrong for some reason.

    What we really need is the IQ test scores for the older children.

    • Chuck says:

      The A-level gaps are narrowing for Blacks and increasing for Chinese:

      http://occidentalascent.wordpress.com/2012/06/10/the-facts-that-need-to-be-explained/#comment-1724

      It’s difficult to tell the exact size because standard deviations are not provided. But I was able to guesstimate them based on 2005 scores which provided percents and points. (I converted the 2005 % differences into SDs and matched them with point differences — and assumed that the % to SD to point relation remained unchanged.) What’s disconcerting is the malleability of the between group differences. Chinese, for example, who have nearly a 100% participation rate compared to White’s 50% increased their scores by 0.3 SD in just 4 years!

      My guess is — based on the GCSE, A-level, and employment test differences — that the Black-White IQ gap for this most recent generation is 0.5 SD by adulthood. If — or when — the A-level difference reaches 0 — or we discover more representative age 20s data showing no gap –I will drop the h^2 hypothesis. But till then, I can reconcile the low difference by invoking some type of immigrant selection. A 0.5 SD gap and 0.5 due to selection = the 1SD that I think might possibly still be plausible — though maybe not, depending on the PISA results.

      • Steve says:

        How do you know there isn’t 1SD of selection? Have you compared black African immigrant IQ (preferably IQ rather than educational attainment, which adds extra imprecision and doubts) to the IQ of the population from which they came? It seems to me that would be the best way to do it. I don’t know why you would compare them to non-migrant blacks born in the UK who are mostly recent descendants of selected migrants and who grew up in a far better environment.

        Don’t get me wrong, I doubt that there is 1SD of selection. This is my thinking: Firstly, I ask do you really have to be 1SD above average IQ to realise you want to make the journey to Europe? If not, if it is a dream held by not only the most intelligent then the question is what is the criteria for success in that journey? I would say a) having the money for air travel or travel by respectable means. In this case, isn’t the correlation between IQ and financial success lower than that between IQ and education, maybe 0.3? That’s then a weak selector of intelligence. Or b) the willingness to make a treacherous journey, but this may be more undertaken by the brave or the desperate than the intelligent.

        Or do you have to be really smart just to realise moving to a first world country is the way to go!?

        Has anybody considered this: what if high IQ people in poor countries are more likely to enjoy relatively good circumstances and therefore less likely to want to leave?

        (btw is there precise knowledge about how far kid’s of high IQ parents regress towards the mean? How much would regression take off 1SD of selection? And does the regression continue each generation until the selection is cancelled out?)

        Lastly, If you are interested I have found a power point presentation by some lecturer with some good graphs about African immigration to the UK: year of entry 1960-2007; numbers of asylum seekers 98-2007; asylum applications by country; trends in asylum migration by number, year and country; regional distribution of immigrants; countries of origin of (all?) African immigrants; age and gender structure; family structure; rates of economic activity and unemployment; qualifications; occupations. The main sources are the labour force survey 2008, home office asylum stats and the census. I can send you it or something if you want.

        • Chuck says:

          Sorry for the belated reply, been under the weather.

          I discussed these and other issues in the comment section here: http://occidentalascent.wordpress.com/2012/09/02/narrowing-the-genetic-environmental-uncertainty-if-you-wish/#comment-2506

          “Have you compared black African immigrant IQ (preferably IQ rather than educational attainment, which adds extra imprecision and doubts) to the IQ of the population from which they came?”

          This is obviously what I’m doing. But I don’t have IQs so I’m using EA.

          ” In this case, isn’t the correlation between IQ and financial success lower than that between IQ and education, maybe 0.3?”

          There are two issues: (1) how selected in IQ are the emigrants (relative to the non-emigrating populations) by virtue of being selected in EA. and (2) how selected are they by virtue of national IQs.

          The amount of EA selection is easy to determine. The amount of IQ selection that this implies is less clear. Read my comments.

          As for the second issue, I disagree with you. It’s not that you have to be super smart to emigrate. It’s that you have to not be super stupid.

          Here is the definition of intelligence that we are working with: “[The] ability to understand complex ideas, to adapt effectively to the environment, to learn from experience, to engage in various forms of reasoning, to overcome obstacles by taking thought.”

          If you grant that the national IQs are true measures of latent intelligence, then some of the IQ differences are simply monstrous. While 18 or so percent of the Han Chinese population is below an IQ of 90, relative to the UK mean, 18 or so percent of the Black African population is below 60. Are you seriously contending that this differences would have no impact on emigrant quality? That an equal amount of Han and Black African would be able to figure out how to relocate? I think not. But I could be wrong.

          How could we test this?

          “Lastly, If you are interested I have found a power point presentation by some lecturer with some good graphs about African immigration to the UK: year of entry 1960-2007”

          That would be great.

          J122177@hotmail.com

          Thanks.

          • Steve says:

            I don’t know what somebody with an IQ under 60 or 70 is like. I really don’t know how stupid they are, practically. I also don’t know how Africans sneaking into Europe works. How is it organised? Does it take a lot of planning by individuals or is it simply on offer for a small price and advertised to everybody? Does word get around to everybody in the community that its an option?

            If so, why assume intelligent people would be more likely to decide to go? They might be more cognizant of risks and less naive. Or it might just go by personality- courage etc. Or are people with IQs under 70, less able to raise the money to go?

            As for those who fly to the UK because they have the money to, then claim asylum, yeah I expect they are selected but I’ve no idea by how much.

            How do you compare their EA to that of the non-emigrants back home? Is there info on their education from home, or are there international tests done you can look at? I guess that’s the way forward. Unless you can get IQ data, which would be way better but you gotta work with what u got.

            Good luck. I’ll email you that thing.

          • Steve says:

            When I ask is it on offer, I’m thinking there must be established ways that it is done….I vaguely remember a programme showing people with boats who charge to transport people by night to Spain. And everybody around kind of knew that’s what you had to do to get to Europe.

          • Steve says:

            Narrator: “A small fishing port (in Senegal)…has been a major departure point for young African migrants to Europe”

            Boy on the film: “I heard about people who had succeeded in reaching Spain. One of my brothers decided to organize a trip….migrating is easy but succeeding there is a different story…..All the youth here have one common goal: leaving the country”.

          • Chuck says:

            Thanks for the info Steve.

            “How do you compare their EA to that of the non-emigrants back home? Is there info on their education from home, or are there international tests done you can look at?”

            Issue discussed here:

            http://occidentalascent.wordpress.com/2012/09/02/narrowing-the-genetic-environmental-uncertainty-if-you-wish/#comment-2494

            http://occidentalascent.wordpress.com/2012/09/02/narrowing-the-genetic-environmental-uncertainty-if-you-wish/#comment-2506

            See, for example:

            Docquier and Marfouk “International Migration by Educational Attainment (1990-2000).”

            The number of emigrants and non-emigrants by educational attainment level are given for each nation. On the assumption that “low skill level” represents the lower 1/3rd of the distribution (- 1 SD) and “high skill level” represents the upper 1/3rd (+ 1 SD), we can, in standard deviations, estimate the emigrant/ non-emigrant educational attainment difference.

            http://perso.uclouvain.be/frederic.docquier/filePDF/DM_ozdenschiff.pdf

            Let me know if you can think of a better method.

          • Steve says:

            “On the assumption that “low skill level” represents the lower 1/3rd of the distribution (- 1 SD) and “high skill level” represents the upper 1/3rd (+ 1 SD), we can, in standard deviations, estimate the emigrant/ non-emigrant educational attainment difference.”

            So we are estimating educational attainment from skill level and then estimating IQ from educational attainment. We lose precision at each step and it could end up being way out… I wouldn’t be very confident of the conclusion. Might be all right for a rough idea though.

            Educational attainment might have a fairly high correlation with IQ but years of schooling and years of schooling in an African country?

            I think the best way to do it would be with IQ data straight off. There must be IQ data on black African immigrants to the UK. There is, right? Lets find out or determine/estimate that and then just compare it to the average IQ back home, since there is also data for that, from L&V or whatever. If we can’t find out IQ by country of origin then just go with the overall average and a generic figure for SSA. Obviously if possible try to match cohorts by year of birth or adjust for Flynn effect.

          • Steve says:

            of course it could be interesting to know how selected they are by skill level, in and of itself.

            If they are strongly selected by skill level, you can pretty much see that something is going on and know there will be IQ selection. Its just that deriving the extent of that IQ selection from skill level selection seems pretty rough.

          • Steve says:

            Just throwing some questions out:

            1. is the correlation between IQ and educational attainment the same in Africa as the west? Are there any reasons to think it might not be?

            2. how important are formal qualifications to what job a person gets into in African country x? How are jobs allocated? How do people get into their jobs?

            3. does the correlation between skill level and EA attainment change with age as people get promoted or demoted on merit/ability once in the job or on hard work?

            4. Is there any knowledge of the correlation between skill level and IQ so we can miss out the EA step? Will it be the same in Africa?

          • Steve says:

            do African countries even have high school leaving qualifications like here?

          • Chuck says:

            Steve,

            I’m out of town so I will be brief.

            (a) In the referred to paper, skill level is measured in years of education.

            (b) Generally, the correlations between outcomes and IQ scores is about the same in Africa as in the West. Refer to the references herein:
            https://lesacreduprintemps19.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/malloyjameswatsontells.pdf

            (c) As for the correlation specifically between IQ scores and educational attainment in Africa, I am not sure. This is something to look into. But I think it’s as high as in the West. (Around 0.6.)

            (d) Contrary to what many think, qualifications are quite important in Africa. Do a wiki on the “West African Examinations Counci.” This will answer your question about High School leaving qualifications.

            (e) No, I’m no aware of UK IQ data broken down by nativity. Even if we had it, it wouldn’t be very informative. How would we factor out the effect of psychometric bias due to language differences etc? We would have to look at the performance on culturally reduced tests (e.g., Raven’s) but there is no such data.

            ….

            (f) You inquiries pointing me to a rather potentially informative piece of information. Do me a favor and verify.

            Look at the association between parental educational attainment and student performance in the TIMSS by region.
            http://nces.ed.gov/surveys/international/ide/

            Specifically select:
            (a) TIMSS ID
            (b) Select Criteria: Math grade 8
            (c) Group: International, Botswana, and Ghana
            (d) Select variables: Student family characteristics: Parental educational attainment

            Notice the associations. Odd, no? If the association between EA and IQ is the same and if the correlation between IQ and test scores is likewise, this implies that the heritability of IQ is reduced. What do you make of it?

            This bears looking into.

          • Chuck says:

            The confidence intervals were rather large. Better to check the SACMEDQ, MLA, and PASEC results. Or just do a lit review/ google search. I’ll look more into this when I get home.

          • Steve says:

            Look at the some developed countries and it is pretty much as it should be if IQ is heritable and EA and tests scores reveal (correlate well with) IQs. Take a look at Japan, Korea, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Norway, and Italy. Italy is a little weird on the ISCED scales but then it is fine on parent’s highest educational attainment. Maybe you should double check these but it looked as it should to me.

            I can see the strangeness in the African countries, especially Botswana, but what I think is going on is that where the parents got to in education/ how much schooling they got had more to do with non-IQ factors- maybe living in the right place, the right tribal connections or whatever.

            As the country modernisers and develops, as the education system improves (which it may have done already) and employment becomes more meritocratic, I would expect this situation to improve.

            However, I guess this invalidates the attempt to work out degree of IQ selectivity from skill level.

            What do you think?

            (On the other hand, could it be the other way around? Environmental reasons for the apparent heritability in the developed countries, while Botswana shows the true situation?! I doubt it, given what (I think) we already know about the heritability of IQ from twin studies etc. )

          • Steve says:

            *note that the kids of those with degrees still have the highest scores in the African countries, even if the correlation between parents ed and kids scores is shaky at the lower levels of education. This could be because even in the scenario I laid out, IQ matters to whether you get a degree- degrees are attained by the smartest of the privileged (a). Or maybe it is just because the kids of those with degrees have much better environments (b). In case (a), you can still tell that there is IQ selection if a disproportionate amount of highly skilled people are among the immigrants. But then how do you know (b) isn’t true? Who got degrees might have been totally corrupt and their smart kids are smarter for environmental reasons.

            (btw did you see the parent’s highest education level report for Botswana? The more educated the parents, the lower the kid’s score with no exception except the degree level :-O. Unbelievably, it looks like a negative correlation if you exclude the degree level. Its only narrow though and the confidence interval is high, as you said.)

          • Steve says:

            *(On the other hand, could it be the other way around? Environmental reasons for the apparent heritability in the developed countries, while Botswana shows the true situation?! I doubt it, given what (I think) we already know about the heritability of IQ from twin studies etc. )

            This also can’t be the case because if there were environmental reasons for apparent heritability in developed countries, scores should still correlate with parents ed in Africa for environmental reasons. But they don’t, and I think that is because IQ IS heritable.

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